In a few hours, Kevin Warsh issues his first Fed verdict. And the financial press has already written your portfolio’s death sentence.

Not so fast, my friends!

While the media loves a good funeral, I’m convinced it’s writing the bull market’s eulogy before the body’s even cold. And so does my latest guest on the podcast Ted Thatcher, founder of Bright Lake Wealth Management.

What’s The Big Skinny? Ted reveals why he isn’t bracing for red. Instead, he says the “peace deal put” can keep this rally alive. And then he shares one “no brainer” stock that doesn’t care what the Fed does next. [Watch our full conversation here.]

Here’s the thing about that doom headline above. Ted doesn’t buy it. And neither do I!

“The first rule in investing is, oftentimes, don’t fight the Fed. Figure out what they’re gonna do and get out of their way,” he says.

So what’s the Fed doing today? Nothing.

As of last week, the markets put the odds of holding rates firm at 97.3%. Ted says it’s 99%. I’ll go one full-percentage point higher and say it’s 100%.

But the rate isn’t the story. The tone is.

Warsh’s first job isn’t to cut rates or please the White House. It’s to win credibility.

Ease too soon to please the politicians and the bond market makes him pay. As Ted rightly points out, the long end of the curve is the real governor on how fast he can ever cut.

So, what does a smart new chair do?

He stays measured. He talks data, not narratives. And he does not leap into the “AI is deflationary” story with both feet, even though Warsh himself has floated it.

“We’re not living in that world yet,” Ted says.

Instead, the real setup is what Ted calls “peace deal put” and it couldn’t have arrived at a better time for consumers and in turn, the stock market.

Brent crude topped $111 a barrel when Iran choked off the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday it finished at $77 — the first sub-$80 print since March.

Every investor (and politician) knows cheaper crude turns into cheaper gas, cheaper shipping, cheaper groceries. The list goes on. And that matters with real wages recently flipping negative, as you can see in the chart above.

Ted’s math says at least 80% of this inflation traces to one thing: oil. The latest BLS data is less aggressive, but still says energy drove more than 60% of last month’s CPI inflation reading.

Pick your data point. Same conclusion: this is the rare moment when the “transitory” actually fits the inflation story.

The takeaway? While the Fed honeymoon may officially end today, the market marriage is “until death do us part.”

What matters today is the dot plot, not the decision.

You’ll recall, in March, the Fed still penciled in a 2026 cut.

Hold that line and the rally can kick into a higher gear.

Show no cuts this year – my base case – and stocks maintain the status quo.

The only real problem is a hawkish surprise that pencils in a hike. But I put those odds near zero.

You know I’ve been banging the table on Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.93% ) for years.

I said it would become the first trillion-dollar Big Pharma. And it crossed that line last November.

It turns out Ted and I both think Lilly can become the first two-trillion-dollar drug giant.

Here’s why Ted owns it across client accounts…

The market is hypnotized by AI. Every headline has another data-center number with more zeros. And everyone keeps asking, “Will this AI boom ever end?”

But Ted asks the better question: “What’s driving the most value for consumers right now”

It’s not a chatbot. It’s a GLP–1.

Consider what’s inside the Lilly machine:

Ted nails the stickiness with one question: ask anyone on the shot whether they’d rather give up their GLP-1 or ChatGPT.

Exactly!

To be fair, the stock’s had a monster run. So how do you buy it without getting your face ripped off?

Ted’s rule belongs on a sticky note: FOMO is not an investment strategy.

But legging into and out of positions is a smart one. By that he means taking a $1,000 and splitting into investments of 30% today, 40% at the midpoint, and the last 30% at the end over the course of three to six months. Then reverse the strategy on the way up and out.

_{For entertainment/educational purposes only. Not financial, legal, or tax advice; not a recommendation or solicitation. Terms & Conditions: TheBigSkinny.com.}